Shares of India’s state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd, tumbled in early trade on Monday, May 11, amid a surge in global crude oil prices on the ongoing geopolitical tensions between US and Iran. This comes despite OMC stocks were expected to trade positive by D-Street analysts after Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday called for Indians to conserve fuel, avoid unnecessary foreign travel and even postpone non-essential gold purchases amid the rising commodity prices over the Middle-East geopolitical risk.

Shares of IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL opened nearly 2% lower each and extended losses to trade in red amid a broader bearish sentiment across the domestic frontline indices. On the NSE, shares of BPCL las traded 2.58% lower at Rs 294.95, IOC traded 2.70% lower at Rs 140.79, and HPCL shares were last down 2.33% lower at Rs 377.90 apiece on the NSE. At the opening bell, Nifty fell as much as 1.15% to 23,897, while the Sensex dropped 1.22%, or about 944 points, to 76,384.65.

The Indian rupee opened weaker against the US dollar and fell as much as 43 paise to 94.91 in early trade. The declines came after the US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to a US peace proposal, raising concerns over prolonged conflict in the Persian Gulf. Domestically, markets reacted to remarks by Prime Minister Narendra Modi urging fuel conservation and restraint on gold purchases amid pressure from rising energy prices, adding to concerns around India’s external balances.
 

PM Modi’s appeal to Indians amid crude price surge

Speaking at an event in Telangana yesterday, PM Modi urged citizens to use imported petroleum products ‘only as per need’ in light of the ongoing Middle East crisis. He also revived several Covid-era practices, including work-from-home arrangements, online meetings and virtual conferences, arguing that reducing fuel consumption would help conserve foreign exchange reserves and cushion the economy from the impact of higher crude prices.

Brokerages indicated that stocks such as Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. could benefit if demand moderation reduces inventory and pricing pressures. For oil marketing companies, the message was quite positive. Lower fuel consumption may ease the burden of under-recoveries if retail prices remain unchanged while global crude stays elevated. However, the fuel confidence failed to impress investors amid the larger global price shock.

Why are OMC stocks in red?

Global crude oil prices rallied on Monday, a day after US President Donald Trump said Iran’s response to a US proposal was “unacceptable,” raising supply fears as the Strait of Hormuz stayed largely closed, which kept the global market tight. Brent crude futures climbed $4.16 or 4.11% to $105.45 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate was at $99.80 a barrel, up $4.38, or 4.59%. Last week, both contracts recorded 6% weekly losses on hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict that would allow oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Titan Company Ltd shares are under pressure on the back of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for Indians to conserve fuel, avoid unnecessary foreign travel and even postpone non-essential gold purchases. Titan shares slumped over 7.5% to trade at around Rs 4,165.60 apiece, as of 10:15 am.

Of the 37 analysts tracking this stock, 28 have a ‘buy’ call, six have a ‘hold’ call, and three have a ‘sell’ call on Titan.

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This is after brokerages turned more constructive on Titan after the jewellery and lifestyle retailer delivered a stronger-than-expected March quarter, driven by resilient demand despite sharply higher gold prices. The company reported a 35% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 1,179 crore, while revenue surged 80% to Rs 26,920 crore, aided by robust jewellery and bullion sales. Management also guided for strong growth in the first half of FY27, reinforcing confidence that demand remains healthy even in a volatile gold-price environment.

Goldman Sachs on Titan

• Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating and hikes the target price to Rs 5,400 from Rs 5,000.
• Q4 delivered a margin beat along with strong sales growth guidance in the jewellery business.
• Jewellery EBIT growth is expected to remain healthy.
• Watches and Eyewear continued to deliver steady performance.

Citi on Titan

• Citi maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target price to Rs 5,075 from Rs 4,750.
• Jewellery revenue growth was supported by healthy demand momentum.
• Jewellery margins contracted materially due to higher bullion prices and transfer pricing impact.
• Management highlighted front-loading of wedding purchases amid rising gold prices.
• Competitive intensity and an unfavourable product mix weighed on profitability.
• Near-term demand outlook remains resilient.

HSBC on Titan

• HSBC retains a Buy rating and raises the target price to Rs 4,930 from Rs 4,510.
• Q4 was strong, with underlying strength in the jewellery business despite elevated gold prices.
• Reported revenue beat was supported by high bullion sales.
• The brokerage raises FY27–28 EPS estimates by 3–5% on the back of strong jewellery performance.
• Management expects H1FY27 growth to exceed 30%.
• Growth is likely to moderate in H2FY27 due to a high base and uncertainty around gold prices.

JPMorgan on Titan

• JPMorgan upgrades Titan to Overweight from Neutral and raises the target price to Rs 5,400 from Rs 4,700.
• The brokerage views Titan as a moat-led compounder with strong brand strength and execution.
• Q4 marked a strong FY26 exit, with broad-based growth across segments.
• The jewellery business continues to benefit from structural tailwinds.
• Buyer growth recovery, wedding purchases and higher studded traction supported execution.
• Management is targeting 15–20% medium-term growth.
• Domestic jewellery margins are expected to sustain at around 11%.
• JPMorgan raises FY27–28 EPS estimates by 4–5%.
• Valuations appear attractive relative to peers such as Avenue Supermarts, Trent and Nykaa.

Morgan Stanley on Titan

• Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and raises the target price to Rs 5,212 from Rs 5,102.
• Q4 results beat expectations, with operating performance ahead of estimates.
• Jewellery growth was driven by healthy demand momentum.
• Rising gold prices continued to support customer interest and higher ticket sizes.
• Management reiterated confidence in sustained double-digit jewellery revenue growth.
• Margins are expected to remain well supported.

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Motilal Oswal Report

Motilal Oswal reiterates its Buy rating on Titan Company Ltd. with a target price of Rs 5,300, based on 60x Mar’28E earnings per share.

Titan, with its superior competitive positioning in sourcing, studded ratio, youth-centric focus, and reinvestment strategy, continues to outperform other branded players. Its brand recall and business moat are not easily replicable; therefore, Tanishq’s competitive edge will remain strong in the category.

The store count reached 3,473 as of Mar’26, and the expansion story remains intact. The non-jewelry business is also scaling up well and will contribute to growth in the medium term.

Apart from industry formalisation, stability in gold prices can further improve margin visibility for Titan.

Overall, the brokerage remains constructive on jewelry industry growth for top players, and Titan, being the bellwether with superior historical execution track record, will benefit the most.

The brokerage models a compound annual growth rate of 15% in sales, 20% in Ebitda, and 24% in adjusted profit after tax over FY26-28E.

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