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India’s regional political forces face decline amid rise of BJP-Congress dominance

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Across India’s political landscape from north to south and east to west, several regional outfits, once dominant in their respective states and frequently decisive in national coalitions, now stand decimated in elections, yielding space either to BJP or Congress

11 May, 2026, 11:40 am

Last modified: 11 May, 2026, 11:47 am

FILE PHOTO: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures, at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, June 4, 2024. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi/File Photo

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FILE PHOTO: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures, at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, June 4, 2024. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi/File Photo

FILE PHOTO: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures, at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, June 4, 2024. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi/File Photo

The defeat of two major regional parties Trinamool Congress and Dravida Munnetra Kazagham in recent assembly elections has forced them to the strategy drawing board to remain relevant as BJP and Congress, with pan-India presence, are expanding their footprints across the country.

In the opposition bloc INDIA, formed in mid-2023 to jointly take on BJP in parliamentary elections of 2024, Congress is the only party with a pan-India presence. While opposition parties could not prevent BJP from returning to power in the general elections two years ago, they succeeded in keeping the Modi-led party from securing a majority on its own.

Congress is now in power in three Himachal Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka and is set to form a government in Kerala. With Congress and other opposition parties competing with each other to position themselves as the leader of the anti-BJP combine, it has the potential to set off fresh equations in INDIA.

Across India’s political landscape from north to south and east to west, several regional outfits, once dominant in their respective states and frequently decisive in national coalitions, now stand decimated in elections, yielding space either to BJP or Congress.

The emergence of caste-based regional parties, for which regional flavour is more important than national issues, has come at the expense of weakened pan-India parties like Congress and BJP since late 1980s. Since the start of coalition politics and governance at the Centre, the national parties’ dependence on regional parties is critical for survival particularly when the lead party lacks majority on its own like the incumbent Modi government is.

Over the last few years, BJP has expanded its hold across 21 states in India as the regional parties fell into decline.

Today, major regional outfits across India’s political canvas from north south to and east like SP, DMK, TMC, BSP, BJD, Shiromani Akali Dal, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction), RJD, Telangana Rashtra Samiti and Left parties are out of power. In most cases, the vacuum is now dominated by BJP. Only South India has been largely elusive for BJP, barring for a brief period in Karnataka.

The states where regional parties are still holding on to power are Andhra Pradesh (Telugu Desam Party, an ally of BJP), Sikkim, Mizoram, Nagaland and Meghalaya.

The crucial question is: are these transient phases in Indian politics or will be here to stay at least for the foreseeable future?

The recent poll setbacks for TMC and DMK has sparked a rethink among the regional parties over their future political strategy and the shape of the INDIA alliance.

What has complicated matters for INDIA is that Congress and DMK, steadfast allies against BJP, have parted ways after the recent Tamil Nadu elections.

The collapse of the alliance between Congress and DMK came when Congress extended support to actor-politician C Joseph Vijay-led TVK forming a coalition government in Tamil Nadu after walking out of the DMK-led alliance. DMK hit back by accusing Congress of “stabbing in the back” and writing to the Speaker of Lok Sabha seeking not to sit with Congress MPs in the House.

What has further roiled INDIA is Rahul Gandhi’s claim made on Friday last that no other party can defeat BJP and Narendra Modi and only Congress can do that. The leader of the opposition in Lok Sabha described the current political climate in India as an ideological battle between RSS and Congress.

By contrast, on several occasions in the past, Mamata Banerjee had said Congress cannot fight BJP effectively.

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav and RJD chief appear to disagree with Rahul and maintain that only regional parties can stop BJP. In fact, Akhilesh had a jibe at Congress snapping alliance with DMK saying “we do not abandon ally in its trying time.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the Congress-DMK rift to attack Congress. Terming Congress as “parasite,” he said at an event in Bengaluru on 10 May that Congress has survived politically for years because of DMK’s support but now “stabbed” the Dravidian party in its back when power equations changed.





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UAE to unlock billions of dollars for Iran Sources

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Word of the move, which has not been previously reported, coincides with the final stages of broader negotiations between Tehran and Washington on ending the war

Reuters

13 June, 2026, 11:10 am

Last modified: 13 June, 2026, 11:15 am

People ride past a mural depicting the late leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the late Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on a street in Tehran, Iran, June 9, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

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People ride past a mural depicting the late leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the late Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on a street in Tehran, Iran, June 9, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

People ride past a mural depicting the late leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and the late Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on a street in Tehran, Iran, June 9, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Highlights

  • Two sources say at least $10 billion to be unlocked under deal
  • First $3 billion tranche already sent, sources say
  • Deal includes revived economic ties, source says
  • UAE official says Gulf state aims to ease regional tensions
  • Iran sought similar pact with two other Gulf states, source says

The United Arab Emirates has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, four sources said, in a tactical shift after weeks of Iranian attacks on the wealthy Gulf Arab state during the US-Israeli war with the Islamic Republic.

Word of the move, which has not been previously reported, coincides with the final stages of broader negotiations between Tehran and Washington on ending the war, talks that diplomats say could involve the release of tens of billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks under US sanctions.

Two regional sources told Reuters the UAE had agreed to release a total of $10 billion, more than $3 billion of which had already been delivered.

Two other sources with knowledge of the arrangement put the total funds involved at $20 billion, adding that the move had been agreed in return for a halt to Iranian attacks on the UAE.

One of the sources with knowledge of the arrangement also said a first tranche of $3 billion had already been made available.

Reuters could not establish whether the funds earmarked for the transfers belong to the UAE or originate in long-blocked Iranian accounts in the UAE banking system, or elsewhere.

The UAE foreign ministry issued a statement early on Saturday categorically denying reports of the transfer “including allegations concerning $3 billion”.

The UAE statement affirmed that these allegations are entirely false and unfounded, stressing that no frozen Iranian funds have been released, transferred or facilitated through the UAE.

The UAE statement did not provide any further specifics.

Earlier, when asked by Reuters to comment on the transfer, a UAE official said the country was trying to ease tension and foster peace.

“The UAE’s foreign policy is guided by promoting de-escalation and reducing tensions across the region, while advancing lasting peace and stability,” the official said. “The UAE supports efforts, including those undertaken by the United States, to protect the peoples of the region from the repercussions of conflict.”

Iran last attacked the UAE directly on 4 May

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the move.

In Washington, Vice President JD Vance said on Friday that funds would not be released to Iran for signing a deal with the US or attending a meeting, adding that the potential deal is structured to ensure that economic benefits would flow to Tehran if it meets its obligations.

There was no immediate response from Iranian authorities to a Reuters request for comment on the move.

None of the sources cited in this article would agree to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The arrangement signals a striking pivot from the open animosity of UAE-Iran relations through much of the war, when Iranian attacks emptied Dubai’s hotels, drove some expatriates to flee and shook the reputation for safety that is central to the country’s position as a premier business hub.

One of the sources with knowledge of the arrangement said the move offered a way to help solve the conflict between the US and Iran without either side crossing its red line: Iran can claim it extracted compensation for war damages, Washington can insist it paid nothing, and Abu Dhabi obtains its own security and Dubai’s hub status, while framing the move as an investment in rebuilding regional trust.

The other source with knowledge of the arrangement said that in return for the disbursement, Iran would halt missile and drone attacks on the UAE, and there would be a rebuilding of bilateral ties, including intelligence sharing and economic cooperation.

The source added that Iran had approached at least two other Gulf Arab countries to make a similar arrangement.

The last known direct attack by Iran on the UAE was more than a month ago – a 4 May strike on the Gulf state’s Fujairah port on the Gulf of Oman.

The first source with knowledge of the arrangement said talks had started several weeks ago but quickened pace when officials of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards visited Abu Dhabi last week to meet Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed al Nahyan, the UAE’s national security adviser and deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi, and stayed at his guest house.

That trip was followed by a visit by UAE officials to Tehran to negotiate the details of the mechanism.

Sizeable Iranian assets in Dubai

The UAE-Iranian arrangement is set to unfold against a complex financial backdrop potentially involving Dubai, the UAE’s main commercial hub and one of Tehran’s most critical economic lifelines.

Dubai’s banks have long held substantial Iranian-linked deposits, much of them now immobilised under US sanctions that police the global dollar-clearing system and expose any foreign bank dealing with blacklisted Iranian entities to being cut off from the American financial network.

On 11 April, a senior Iranian source said that the US had agreed to release Iranian frozen assets held in Qatar and other foreign banks, although a US official swiftly denied the assertion.

The source, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, told Reuters that unfreezing the assets was “directly linked to ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz”, a key issue in talks aimed at ending the conflict.





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Iran says Elon Musk's business interests in Middle East are military targets

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According to the state-affiliated Fars news agency, the designation includes SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service and its regional ground stations



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US and Iran signal a peace deal is close

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The terms of the so-called memorandum of understanding include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports, the US official told reporters, adding that the deal met President Donald Trump’s core objectives and put negotiations “in a very, very good place.”

Reuters

13 June, 2026, 12:55 am

Last modified: 13 June, 2026, 01:04 am

Chess pieces are seen in front of displayed Iran’s and US flags in this illustration taken January 25, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

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Chess pieces are seen in front of displayed Iran's and US flags in this illustration taken January 25, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Chess pieces are seen in front of displayed Iran’s and US flags in this illustration taken January 25, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Summary

  • Washington expects initial deal in coming days, US official says
  • Pakistan PM says text of a deal has been finalised
  • Trump calls reports of terms that favour Iran ‘fake news’
  • Deal as outlined by Western, Iranian, Pakistani sources appears to match terms originally proposed by Tehran
  • Western source says deal could be signed as soon as Sunday

     

The United States and Iran signalled yesterday (12 June) that an agreement to end their war was close, with a senior US administration official saying both sides had agreed on a ‌text and that Washington expects to sign an initial deal in the coming days.

Iran’s decision-making bodies were meeting to discuss the memorandum, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said.

The terms of the so-called memorandum of understanding include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports, the US official told reporters, adding that the deal met President Donald Trump’s core objectives and put negotiations “in a very, very good place.”

Leaked terms of the proposed memorandum outlined by Western, Pakistani and Iranian sources earlier yesterday appeared ​to favour Iran, drawing criticism from Trump, who dismissed the reports as inaccurate.

While there were minor differences in the accounts, all appeared to offer Tehran much of what it has demanded so far, ​with Trump appearing to win little of what he has sought beyond the reopening of the strait, which Iran shut after the US and Israel launched attacks ⁠in February.

The US official, however, said the agreement would ultimately lead to the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, with its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be destroyed and removed – a key US demand.

Trump also reposted comments ​by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who said a memorandum to end the war had “never been closer.”

Pakistan, which has for weeks sought to broker a deal, said a final text had been settled upon. “Pakistan is now working ​closely with both sides to finalise the next steps,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a post on X.

WHAT’S IN THE DEAL?

Draft terms of the deal described to Reuters by multiple sources indicate that the US would immediately begin releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and waive sanctions on its oil exports, in return for Iran opening the strait.

Discussion of Iran’s nuclear programme would be set aside for a 60-day period of talks on a final settlement, they said. The proposals include discussion of possible war ​reparations for Tehran and dropping longstanding US demands for limits on Iran’s missile programme, the sources said.

Washington has repeatedly demanded Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Another senior US official, describing the agreement, said the ​uranium stockpile “will be destroyed and removed” and Iran’s nuclear programme would be dismantled.

“None of their money released until they perform. Strait of Hormuz will be open. No Iran funding of terrorist groups,” the official said. “This is what they have agreed to. ‌This is ⁠a performance-based deal.”

Vice President JD Vance said on X: “First, the Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting.”

The deal ensures economic benefits would only flow to Iran if it meets its obligations under the agreement, he said.

ISRAEL NOT PARTY TO MEMORANDUM

A Western source said that if language can be agreed, the memorandum could be signed as soon as Sunday by Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, with Geneva seen as the likeliest venue.

The US administration official said Europe had been discussed as a venue for signing but no decision had been made.

Israel, which launched the war alongside the United ​States, has not been part of the negotiations. Prime ​Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would not ⁠be party to the memorandum.

Netanyahu has clashed with Trump in recent weeks over US demands that Israel curb military action in Lebanon to let Washington reach a deal with Tehran.

Israel’s defence minister said Israel would not withdraw from territory in Lebanon. A senior Israeli official said Israel expects under any deal to retain its freedom to act against ​what it deems threats in areas under its control.

OIL PRICE FALLS

The progress towards an agreement has emerged at the end of a week that brought a sharp escalation ​in hostilities in the Gulf, including Israeli-Iranian ⁠exchanges of fire and US strikes on Iranian targets, followed by retaliation against US bases.

Indications of a potential deal prompted global shares to rally and oil prices to slip. Brent crude prices were down more than 3% at their lowest in nearly two months.

The conflict has become a political headache for the White House, amid rising fuel prices and slipping approval ratings for Trump.

Some Republicans worry that the war’s unpopularity could cost them control of Congress in November’s midterm elections. But ⁠many Republicans hold ​hawkish positions on Iran and could have difficulty endorsing an agreement viewed as yielding concessions.

Tehran has always said its nuclear programme ​is peaceful and accepted tight curbs on it in return for the lifting of sanctions under a 2015 agreement with the administration of then-US President Barack Obama.

Trump abandoned that deal during his first term in 2018 and Iran responded by ramping up its enrichment of uranium, ​producing more than 400 kg (around 900 pounds) of material at close to the purity needed to make a bomb.





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