A second round of US-Iran negotiations is expected in Islamabad, Pakistan, as a fragile two-week ceasefire approaches its expiry on Wednesday, April 22.

The talks follow an earlier round led by Vice President JD Vance that ended without agreement, with both sides remaining divided on core strategic issues, reports Al Jazeera.

Tensions have escalated in the lead-up to the meeting. US President Donald Trump has issued sharp warnings to Tehran, saying it must agree to a deal “one way or another – the nice way or the hard way.” He added, “We’re offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran.” Trump has also previously said of Iran’s leadership, “Seems like that would be the best thing that could happen.”

On nuclear issues, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told Congress that the US “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.” However, the United States and Israel are still demanding zero uranium enrichment, while Iran insists its programme is for civilian use under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Strait of Hormuz

One of the central disputes is over the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route. Iran asserts sovereignty over the waterway, proposing tolls and limits on what it calls “nonhostile” ships. The United States is demanding full freedom of navigation. Analysts say proposals for shared oversight would be politically difficult for US regional partners.

Nuclear programme

The uranium enrichment issue remains a major obstacle. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates Iran has enriched uranium up to 60 percent, close to weapons-grade levels. Iran rejects calls to end enrichment entirely.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned before the ceasefire that Iran’s refusal to negotiate its missile programme was a “big problem.”

Maryam Jamshidi, a law professor at the University of Colorado, said: “In demanding that Iran have no enrichment, the United States is denying Iran its rights under this treaty [NPT].” She added: “In insisting that its right to enrichment be preserved, Iran is expressing a reasonable desire to be treated the same as any other state under international law.”

Regional conflicts and Lebanon

Iran has pushed for any ceasefire to extend to Lebanon, including an end to Israeli military operations against Hezbollah. A separate truce in Lebanon has been under strain due to renewed fighting.

Regional proxy networks

The US and Israel are also demanding that Iran end support for armed groups across the region, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias. Tehran denies agreeing to such conditions.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “The Americans talk excessively and create noise around the situation. Do not be misled!”

Negotiation outlook

Despite limited technical understandings reported in earlier talks, officials on both sides acknowledge major gaps remain. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran’s parliament and a senior negotiator, said: “we are far from a final agreement.”

Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi said: “Iran acts based on national interests.” He added: “We see the current negotiations as a continuation of the battlefield, and we see nothing other than the battlefield in this.” He also said: “If it yields achievements that sustain those of the battlefield, then the negotiation arena is also an opportunity for us … but not if the Americans intend to turn this into a field of excessive demands based on their bullying approach.”

Expert assessment

Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer at King’s College London, said: “This isn’t just between the US and Iran. It’s about the US having to keep its regional allies on side.” He added: “At the moment, the gaps look insurmountable,” and “the best-case scenario would be the extension of the ceasefire rather than the actual deal.”

Salar Mohandesi of Bowdoin College said: “The fundamental structures of the Islamic Republic are intact, and the new leaders are regime loyalists who are arguably more hardline than their assassinated predecessors.” He added: “Trump’s declaration that he has succeeded in ‘regime change’ is just a rhetorical move to try to claim victory where none exists.” He also said: “Donald Trump feels that he needs to somehow convert this disastrous defeat into some sort of win.”

Status of talks

With negotiations continuing under military and diplomatic pressure, both sides remain far apart on security guarantees, nuclear restrictions, and regional influence. Observers say the upcoming Islamabad meeting is more likely to test whether the ceasefire can be extended than to produce a comprehensive agreement.

President Donald Trump said yesterday (20 April) he believed ​a nuclear deal the US is currently negotiating with Iran will be better ‌than a 2015 international agreement to curb Tehran’s nuclear program.

“The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA, commonly ​referred to as ‘The Iran Nuclear Deal’,” Trump wrote in ​a social media post after concerns expressed by Democrats and ⁠some nuclear experts that he is rushing negotiations on ​a highly complex topic.

During his first White House term, Trump in 2018 ​withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreed to by Iran, the United States and world powers, calling it “the worst deal ever.”

The United ​States and Israel began attacking Iran more than seven weeks ​ago in a conflict that Trump has said aims to prevent Iran ‌from ⁠getting a nuclear weapon.

With a two-week ceasefire set to expire in the coming days, prospects for a second round of talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan were not clear.

“I ​am under no ​pressure whatsoever, ⁠although it will all happen relatively quickly!” Trump added in a Truth Social post.

It is ​currently unclear what kind of deal could be ​credibly ⁠agreed to by the United States and Iran in a short amount of time. The 2015 agreement, which also involved France, ⁠Germany, China, ​Britain and Russia, took two years ​to negotiate and involved some 200 specialists spanning nuclear physics, sanctions, finance and ​law.

Pioneer Insurance PLC posted a 25% year-on-year growth in net profit in the first quarter of 2026, driven largely by a sharp cut in management expenses, even as its premium income declined significantly.

According to the company’s financial statements for the January–March period, net profit after tax rose to Tk16.59 crore, up from the same period last year. Earnings per share (EPS) also increased to Tk1.70, compared to Tk1.36 a year earlier.

However, the insurer’s premium income dropped by 19% to Tk77.72 crore during the quarter, reflecting a broader slowdown in the general insurance sector.

The profit growth was mainly supported by a 45% reduction in management expenses, which fell to Tk16.37 crore. The decline followed a regulatory move by the Insurance Development and Regulatory Authority (IDRA) to cancel agent commissions for non-life insurers, easing operational costs.

Despite the improved bottom line, the company faced rising claims, which surged by 64% year-on-year to Tk12.11 crore during the quarter.

Commenting on the performance, Syed Shahriyar Ahsan, chief executive officer of Pioneer Insurance, said the industry is currently navigating a challenging environment.

“The cancellation of agent commissions has significantly reduced business volumes that were previously driven by agents,” he told The Business Standard. 

He added that a slowdown in private sector exports and imports, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has further impacted the sector.

According to Ahsan, the general insurance industry experienced a combined premium income decline of Tk221 crore in the first two months of 2026, reflecting sluggish economic activity and the absence of agent incentives.

He also raised concerns over pricing practices among smaller insurers, alleging that some companies are undercutting premiums to secure business. “This creates an uneven playing field for companies that maintain standard pricing and transparency,” he said, urging regulators to address the issue.

To stabilise the sector, he suggested reintroducing mandatory motor insurance, citing rising road accidents and the need to expand coverage while improving industry transparency.

Despite the quarterly profit growth, investor sentiment remained cautious. Pioneer Insurance shares declined by 1.13% to close at Tk61.30 on the Dhaka Stock Exchange on Monday.

For the year ended 31 December 2025, the company reported an EPS of Tk4.57 and a net asset value per share of Tk46.97. Based on this performance, its board has recommended a 25% cash dividend alongside a 5% stock dividend, subject to regulatory approval.

The company’s annual general meeting is scheduled to be held on 4 May through a digital platform.