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Stagnation warning as incoming BoE chief brands Britain’s economy ‘weak’ | Personal Finance | Finance

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Britain could be on the brink of an economic slowdown in the coming years with the “full effects” of rises yet to be felt, the incoming deputy governor of the has warned.

Sarah Breeden, who will replace Sir Jon Cunliffe as the Bank’s deputy for financial stability in November, highlighted that while the rising Base Rate has been necessary to help bring down , the impact it’s had pushing down on demand – paired with weaker supply – could result in a stagnant economy.

In a questionnaire published on Tuesday, Ms Breeden said: “The MPC has responded to inflation pressures by raising Bank Rate by more than 500 basis points since December 2021. Whilst much of the impact of the rise in Bank Rate is to come, this monetary policy action has already materially pushed down on inflation.

“A simple rule of thumb would suggest that inflation could have been around three to five percentage points higher had the MPC not increased Bank Rate.”

However, she noted: “I would expect relatively flat GDP in the UK over the next couple of years, as the impact of past increases in the Bank rate increasingly pushes down on demand, and supply remains very weak.”

The UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate dropped to 6.8 percent in July 2023, and Ms Breeden predicts it “should decline over the rest of the year” to around five percent.

She explained: “Much of the decline will be driven by energy prices, which are no longer rising at the high rates we have seen for the past couple of years and have begun to fall.”

Food and core goods inflation should also fall, however, she noted: “Over the next two years, demand should weaken and push the economy into excess supply, which will push down on inflation further via domestic channels.

“I expect inflation to be around the two percent target in two years, conditional on the assumptions in the August forecast.”

In an effort to protect falling real incomes amid a period of record-high inflation, workers, managers and business owners have sought compensation in the form of higher nominal pay and domestic selling prices.

But this has increased domestic price and wage inflation and so made inflation “more persistent”, Ms Breeden noted.

She said that the UK’s economy is “weak in absolute terms”, with gross domestic product (GDP) just a little ahead of where it had been before the pandemic, despite a recent upgrade in the official statistics.

But she added that if they wanted to totally offset rising inflation, the MPC members would have had to increase rates twice as fast as they had, which could have sent shockwaves through the economy.

Ms Breeden said: “Had the MPC sought to offset entirely the overshoot of inflation above target over the past couple of years, they would have had to do two things. First, they would have had to foresee the effects of the recovery from COVID-19 on import prices and excess demand, as well as the impact on inflation from the invasion of Ukraine, well in advance of them happening.

“Second, they would have had to increase interest rates to more than double their current level. This would have led to a deep (global financial crisis-sized) recession, a huge increase in unemployment and a fall in nominal wages just as the economy was recovering from COVID-19. Neither of these seem like plausible counterfactuals.”

The Monetary Policy Committee will next meet to discuss the Base Rate on September 21, 2023.



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IRGC Vows To ‘Kill’ Netanyahu, Trump Seeks Help To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz While Not Being Keen On Ceasefire

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March 15, 2026

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Iran War News Live Updates: Trump Attempt To Open Strait of Hormuz

US President Donald Trump called on allied countries to deploy warships to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and there were no indications on Sunday that the ongoing war would end soon.

“The Countries of the World that ​receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help — ⁠A LOT!” Trump wrote in a social media post on Saturday. “The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that ​everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well.”

The president said military facilities on the Persian Gulf island had been “obliterated,” adding that he chose not to hit oil infrastructure “for reasons of decency.” He threatened to do just that should Iran “do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz.”

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upGrad Signs Term Sheet To Acquire Unacademy In 100% Share-Swap Deal

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March 15, 2026

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upGrad has signed a term sheet to acquire Unacademy in a 100% share swap deal.

“Neither side will disclose the valuation until closing, when the papers are filed and the transaction becomes public,” Unacademy founder Gaurav Munjal tweeted on Sunday.

“I will be staying back as Co-Founder and CEO Unacademy – with the Goal to build Great Online Products for Learners in India and Globally,” Munjal added.

upGrad co-founder Ronnie Screwvala said his firm also agreed to a break fee if the deal is not closed. “If this closes. upGrad’s integrated model with an expanded focus from K12 to forever learning will be on a strong trajectory,”  Screwvala added.

“We at upGrad have signed a term sheet to acquire Unacademy in an all-stock deal, with Founder and CEO @gauravmunjal staying on to build Unacademy and focus on what it does best, creating online education products that learners love,” he added.

In January, UpGrad had called off a deal to acquire Unacademy at a valuation of around $290 million, citing valuation concerns and various business-related challenges within the Temasek and SoftBank-backed startup, according to sources.

Sources said that UpGrad changed its mind after realising the business of Unacademy is shrinking and there is fierce competition around the offline centre business of the edtech firm, which will require massive investments.

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Light Rains Bring Relief To City On Sunday Morning, AQI ‘Moderate’

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March 15, 2026

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Many areas of the city witnessed light rainfall on Sunday morning, bringing a much-needed respite from the prevailing dry conditions, the IMD said.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that 5 mm of rainfall was recorded till 8.30 am.

According to the IMD data, Safdarjung and Lodhi Road recorded 0.8 mm rainfall each, while Palam received 0.4 mm. Ayanagar recorded 2.6 mm rainfall and Pitampura 3.5 mm, the highest among the stations.

ALSO READ: Mumbai Mayor Ritu Tawde Responds To Deepika Padukone’s ‘Children Are Choking’ AQI Post

Additionally, Mayur Vihar recorded 1.0 mm rainfall and Janakpuri 0.5 mm, while Ridge reported only a trace of rainfall.

The minimum temperature was recorded at 20.2 degrees Celsius, which is 5.1 notches above the seasonal average, while the maximum temperature is expected to settle around 28 degrees Celsius, the weather office said.

The AQI stood in the ‘moderate’ category at 9 am, with an Air Quality Index (AQI) reading of 190, Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data showed.

According to the CPCB, an AQI between zero and 50 is considered ‘good’, 51 to 100 ‘satisfactory’, 101 to 200 ‘moderate’, 201 to 300 ‘poor’, 301 to 400 ‘very poor’, and 401 to 500 ‘severe’.

ALSO READ: Delhi Gasps For Air: AQI Over 200 On Nearly Every Other Day, Winter Peaks Hit 466

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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